the day so far ...
- Seperatism of the Warm and Fuzzy Variety -Mr. Boisclair is calling for a kinder, gentler, and outward looking brand of sovereignty. This ain't your pappas secessionist movement!, so to speak.
Jean Charest and the Quebec Liberal Party have two years to shore up their tattered support levels in the province. It is enough time to get the job done, but it is also more than enough time to blow it. (The pun was unintentional. But I will let it stand.)
In related news, Charest is offering Boisclair an uncontested seat in the Montreal riding of Ste-Marie-St-Jacques for the upcoming by-election.
- Animal, Mineral, Vegetable. And the Franchise -
I promised to revisit the allegations of voting irregularities resulting from the PQ membership's use of phone-in voting. The story goes something like this: a Chihuahua named Pixelle and a houseplant named Gilbert were able to vote in the leadership nomination. Nobody seems to know how many other non-people, or how many fake people, were able to do the same by exploiting the system. Ah, isn't democracy a hoot?
This is the sort of story that won't get much traction in english-speaking Canada, but should provide plenty of fodder for the Quebec press. Given that Boisclair won with a narrow 3% margin, the issue carries extra weight.
-Polls-
The Sun Media-SES poll was officially released today. No surprises - as mentioned yesterday, the Liberals show a 6% drop with 5% of that lost support finding its way to the NDP.
National support for the parties breaks down as follows:
- Liberal Party: 34% (down 6%)
- Conservative Party: 28% (no change)
- New Democratic Party: 20% (up 5%)
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posted by williamNPH @ 2:37 PM
3 Comments:
Hmm... Here's a fun idea: what if, in the next two weeks, we see Liberal support drop another six points, the Conservatives remain unchanged, and the NDP rise another six points.
What do you think will happen then?
I think the NDP generally polls better before the writ is dropped than they do after. So even if that were to happen, I'd expect to see a lot of that support migrating back to the Liberal camp once the stumping begins.
I also suspect that if the Liberals drop too low in the polls, those who are trying to punish them will plug their nose and return to the Liberal fold. It will also make it easier for the Libs to go about their usual scare tactics ("the CPC will destroy this country", "a vote for the NDP is a wasted vote") to pickup votes.
But if you mean - what do I think would happen should the results look like this on election day:
LPC - 28%
CPC - 28%
NDP - 26%
BQ - 17%
Well, I think Michaelle Jean would have her work cut out for her trying to figure out who should form government.
How about you, James? What do you see happening in that scenario?
The scenario is a fantasy, I'll admit, but I think it's likely that we'll have a hung parliament in this election. Which may be the best thing for us. Stephen Harper isn't nearly so scary if he's held back by BQ and NDP coalition partners, and putting Harper in the PM's chair allows the Liberals to retire and have that cathartic leadership battle that's long overdue.
If we perpetuate the current parliament, I think the stagnation will continue.
But, whatever the case, I'll likely vote Green.
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